By Tural Tagiyev
On June 28, Iran will hold an early presidential election . Despite global media attention to Tehran, Iranians seem largely uninterested. Many have become disillusioned with politics, as evidenced by the record low turnout in the parliamentary elections held in March, amidst calls for a boycott.
Sadraddin Soltan, head of the Middle East Research Center and political commentator, answered these questions. He believes that no surprises are expected in the presidential election, as all potential candidates capable of unexpected moves were eliminated at the registration stage. This ensures that the elections will be conducted in a calm and stable manner.
"On March 1 of this year, the Iranian authorities held elections to the parliament and the Assembly of Experts. Organizing three major elections within a year is considered a significant event for Iran. It is noteworthy that these political campaigns took place against the backdrop of the Hamas-Israel conflict. Now, the presidential elections will occur amidst the ongoing war and heightened expectations of an Israeli operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. In this context, organizing such large political campaigns while Iran is involved in military operations is a challenging task for Tehran authorities. The elections are expected to proceed without scandals, as all problematic candidates were eliminated at the registration stage. However, some tensions in the country are still possible," the expert noted.
He also highlighted that only members of the PKK terrorist group, active in western Iran on the border with Iraq, could create problems in Kurdistan. Additionally, armed Baluch groups in Baluchistan might undertake provocative actions. Thus, tensions could arise only in these regions.
Soltan also noted that Tehran, considering all possible risks, has put its security forces on high alert. "On June 28, all Iranian Armed Forces will be on high combat readiness. Therefore, any attempts to create tension will be immediately suppressed. In the country, only general protests and flash mobs are possible. During the election campaign, various groups declared that participating in the elections means being complicit in the regime's crimes and legitimizing its actions. Therefore, public participation in these elections will be minimal, without mass involvement. In the previous elections, when Ebrahim Raisi ran, the turnout was also low. Raisi won with 48.8% of the vote, while in the previous elections, Hassan Rouhani garnered over 70% of the votes. Even earlier, President Ahmadinejad received 85% of the votes. In the last parliamentary elections, the turnout was about 30%, although official sources claimed 40%," the expert noted.
According to polls, 65% of respondents said they would not turn out to vote in the upcoming elections, mirroring the results of the parliamentary elections. Soltan believes that these polls indicate a low turnout in the presidential election. He also assessed the chances of the presidential candidates. Currently, the main contest is between three candidates: Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf; the representative of Iran's Supreme Leader in the National Security Council, Said Jalili; and MP Masoud Pezeshkian.
It is noteworthy that Pezeshkian, who is reportedly of Azerbaijani descent and was born in Tabriz, is considered the only reformist candidate among the contenders. His rivals are known for their conservatism. The potential election of an Azerbaijani as president could mark the beginning of a new era in Tehran-Baku relations.
"Ghalibaf appears to have the best chance, as he is strongly supported by the regime. Regardless of who becomes president, relations between Iran and Azerbaijan will remain at their current level, since the president does not determine the country's foreign and domestic policy. In Iran, the president is the second most important figure and the head of the executive branch. The primary role is played by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who sets the policies that the president merely implements," the expert concluded.
