Editor's note:Dr. Shoaib Khan of the Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, University of Mumbai
In a move that marks a significant shift in global diplomacy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to visit Moscow, his first since the onset of the Ukraine conflict. This visit, under the aegis of the annual summit mechanism which has faced delays in recent years, holds substantial geopolitical weight. The timing, shortly after the Indian Parliament session, suggests a strategic decision by Modi to prioritize this engagement despite the global tensions surrounding Russia.Historically, Indian Prime Ministers have prioritized their immediate neighborhood for initial bilateral visits, making this trip an even more notable deviation from tradition. This visit underscores India's nuanced stance on the Ukraine conflict and highlights its commitment to maintaining robust bilateral relations with Russia, despite Western disapproval.
India’s decision to send Modi to Moscow must be viewed against the broader backdrop of global diplomatic currents. Pakistan, under Munir Akram’s guidance, is set to join the UN Security Council as a temporary member in 2025, with China backing a resolution on Jammu and Kashmir. In this context, Modi’s visit to Russia is not just about bilateral relations but also about positioning India strategically on the global stage.
The last bilateral visit between Modi and Putin in 2019 highlighted the increasing Western escalation in Ukraine, as seen during the G-7 summit in Italy. The upcoming summit is expected to be more about sharing perspectives rather than immediate bilateral outcomes. With significant political shifts anticipated in the UK, France, and the US, India must remain agile in its diplomatic maneuvers.
Modi’s visit to Moscow will undoubtedly affect India’s relations with Western countries. Despite the ongoing conflict, India has maintained a stance advocating for diplomacy and dialogue rather than outright condemnation of Russia’s actions. This stance has been a source of frustration for the West, which has struggled to unify international condemnation against Russia. The West's approach has often been to isolate Russia economically and politically, but India's continued engagement signals a different strategy, one that seeks to balance relations without compromising on its own strategic interests.
India’s strategic autonomy allows it to navigate complex international waters without being swayed by external pressures. This independence is evident in India’s participation in the Quad, which raises concerns in Russia, just as Russia’s closer ties with China and Pakistan cause apprehensions in India. A mutual understanding of each other’s strategic priorities and concerns is essential for maintaining this delicate balance. India’s engagement with multiple global powers demonstrates its commitment to a multipolar world where no single nation or bloc can dominate international affairs.
Modi’s visit is expected to focus on enhancing cooperation in the energy sector, expanding trade, and potentially signing new military and logistic agreements. These agreements could include joint military deployments and logistical support, akin to the LEMOA agreement India has with the US. Such cooperation could significantly enhance India’s strategic capabilities, particularly in regions like the Arctic, where new opportunities are emerging due to global warming. The Arctic region, rich in untapped resources, offers strategic and economic benefits that both India and Russia are keen to explore.
India’s increased import of Russian crude oil, despite Western sanctions, is a testament to the growing energy cooperation between the two nations. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor are pivotal projects that aim to strengthen economic ties. However, Pakistan’s potential involvement in the INSTC poses new challenges, as the absence of China and Pakistan has been a significant factor in the corridor’s relevance for India. The inclusion of Pakistan could alter the dynamics of this corridor, necessitating a careful reassessment by Indian policymakers.
The Ukraine conflict has had far-reaching implications for global energy markets. For India, the crisis triggered inflationary pressures, necessitating the purchase of discounted Russian oil. This strategy has been crucial in managing domestic economic stability. India’s massive energy needs and reliance on imports make Russia a vital partner. The projected increase in India’s oil consumption underscores the importance of stable energy supplies, which Russia can provide. By securing a steady supply of oil, India can mitigate the risks of global market fluctuations and ensure energy security for its growing economy.
Investments in each other’s energy sectors could offer a solution to the challenges both countries face: price stability for India and consistent revenue for Russia. Such cooperation could lead to a more resilient energy partnership, beneficial for both nations in the long term. Joint ventures in energy infrastructure, exploration, and production could enhance the strategic alignment between the two countries, providing mutual benefits and strengthening bilateral ties.
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Moscow is a testament to India’s strategic diplomacy and its commitment to maintaining balanced international relations. As global political dynamics continue to shift, India’s ability to navigate these changes with strategic autonomy will be crucial. This visit not only reaffirms India’s ties with Russia but also sets the stage for future cooperation in energy, trade, and strategic domains. By continuing to engage with Russia, India sends a clear message about its independent foreign policy and its readiness to play a significant role in global geopolitics.
In conclusion, Modi’s Moscow visit is not just a routine diplomatic engagement; it is a strategic move that highlights India’s approach to international relations. It reflects India’s determination to uphold its strategic autonomy, foster diverse global partnerships, and navigate complex geopolitical landscapes. The outcomes of this visit will likely have a lasting impact on India’s foreign policy trajectory and its role on the global stage.
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