AmericanUniversityprofessorAllanLichtmanhascorrectlypredicted9outofthelast10presidentialelections.Forinstance,in2016,hepredictedthatTrumpwouldbeatHillaryClinton,andin2020,hepredictedJoeBidenwouldwinoverTrump.
ThehistorianhasnowpredictedthatHarriswillwinoverTrumpintheNovember5election,andtheDemocratswillkeeptheWhiteHouse.InavideopostedbytheNewYorkTimes,Lichtmansaid:
TheDemocratswillholdontotheWhiteHouse,andKamalaHarriswillbethenextpresidentoftheUnitedStates.Atleast,that’smypredictionforthisrace.
AccordingtoCNBC,Lichtmanuseshis13KeystotheWhiteHousemodeltopredictelectionresults.Theseincludefactorslikeeconomicstabilityandtheabsenceofmajorscandals.Hedevelopedtheuniquesysteminthe1980swithRussiangeophysicistVladimirKeilis-Borok.
Lichtman’spredictivemodel,whichhasconsistentlyprovenreliablefordecades,reliesonatrue-or-falsesystemof13conditions.Ifsixormorestatementsarefalse,thenthechallengerispredictedtowin.The13statementsareasfollows:
Truestatements
Challengercharisma:Thechallengingpartycandidateisnotcharismaticoranationalhero.
Scandal:Theincumbentadministrationisuntaintedbymajorscandals.
Policychange:Theincumbentadministrationeffectsmajorchangesinnationalpolicy.
Socialunrest:Thereisnosustainedsocialunrestduringtheterm.
Short-termeconomy:Theeconomyisnotinrecessionduringtheelectioncampaign.
Long-termeconomy:Realper-capitaeconomicgrowthduringthetermequalsorexceedsmeangrowthduringtheprevioustwoterms.
Falsestatements
Partymandate:Afterthemidtermelections,theincumbentpartyholdsmoreseatsintheUSHouseofRepresentativesthanitdidafterthepreviousmidtermelections.
Incumbency:Theincumbent-partycandidateisthesittingpresident.
Incumbentcharisma:Theincumbent-partycandidateischarismaticoranationalhero.
Undecidedstatements
AccordingtoLichtman,thefinaltwokeysinvolvingforeignpoliciescanbe‘tricky’andcouldflipanytime.Regardlessofbothstatementsflipping,they‘wouldnotbeenough’forTrump‘toregaintheWhiteHouse.’Headded:
Thekeysabsolutelywillwork.Theyaretheconstantnorthernstarofpoliticalprediction.Theoutcomeisuptoyou.Sogetoutandvote.
WhoisAllanLichtman-thepresidentialelectionNostradamus?
AllanLichtmanisarenownedAmericanpoliticalhistorianandprofessoratAmericanUniversityinWashington,DC.Bestknownforhis‘KeystotheWhiteHouse,’hehasearnedthetitleof‘electionNostradamus’duetohishighlyaccuratepredictions,whicharebasedonhistoricalpatternsanddataratherthanopinionpolling.
Hisexpertisegoesbeyondpredictions;heisalsoapublishedauthorandfrequentmediacommentatoronAmericanpoliticalhistory,elections,andcivilrightsissues,asreportedbytheAmericanUniversitywebsite.Hehasauthoredseveralinfluentialbooks,includingTheCaseforImpeachment—anationalindependentbookstorebestseller—andRepealtheSecondAmendment.HisbookWhiteProtestantNation:TheRiseoftheAmericanConservativeMovementwasafinalistfortheNationalBookCriticsCircleAwardinnonfiction.Lichtmanwasalsolistedasthe85thmostinfluentialgeopoliticalexpertintheworldbyRiseGlobal.
